National Institute of Mental Health Funds Decision-Making Research

In an uncertain world, how do people make decisions for the future?

Kre拧imir Josi膰, professor of mathematics at the 探花视频, will conduct research to see if people adjust their decision-making strategies to account for a changing environment.In a new grant from the National Institute of Mental Health, Kre拧imir Josi膰, professor of mathematics at the 探花视频, along with collaborators from the University of Pennsylvania and the University of Colorado Boulder, will conduct controlled experiments to see if people adjust their decision-making strategies to account for a changing environment.

Variability of Environment Important For Decision-Making

One example of this type of decision would be moving into a specific neighborhood. Most people make this decision by talking to people who have lived there, while also researching factors such as home prices, school quality and crime rates.

However, depending on the current state of the neighborhood, some of the older information may not be relevant.

鈥淲hen making decisions, we frequently have to take into account the variability in the environment,鈥� Josi膰 said. 鈥淗ow quickly is the environment changing?鈥�

Perhaps a once-high crime rate is dropping due to increased law enforcement, or perhaps school quality is declining because families are moving out, or perhaps the historic prices don鈥檛 reflect a current economic boom that will cause home values to soar.

Rate of Change Affects Information Relevance

Part of what makes information relevant is the rate at which the environment, such as a specific neighborhood, is changing. If a neighborhood remains stable, then this older information is a good indicator. If not, then some of this information may no longer be applicable.

鈥淲e want to see if people discount older information as less relevant,鈥� Josi膰 said. 鈥淗ow much weight do people give to this older information?鈥�

Josi膰鈥檚 research group will be developing mathematical algorithms that describe optimal and near optimal strategies for decision-making in variable environments.

Optimal Guessing Strategies: How Close Do People Get?

鈥淢athematically, we can devise an algorithm that creates a strategy that will give you the highest percentage of being right,鈥� Josi膰 said. 鈥淭he question is, how close do people get?鈥�

Meanwhile, collaborators at the University of Pennsylvania will take this into the lab, testing decision-making in a controlled environment, to see how decisions differ from the optimal strategy, as well as probe the neural circuits that are involved.

鈥淰ariability in the environment is a hidden aspect, but one that is still important for decision-making,鈥� Josi膰 said.

This grant, which is for a four-year duration, is in collaboration with University of Pennsylvania faculty member Joshua Gold and University of Colorado Boulder faculty member Zachary Kilpatrick. Of the total grant amount, Josi膰鈥檚 group has been awarded $409,038.

- Rachel Fairbank, College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics